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January 16, 2025
As we enter 2025, it’s the perfect time to set goals and establish a financial game plan for the year ahead. Whether it's adjusting to a new salary, planning for big expenses, or refining life goals, now is the ideal moment to lay the groundwork for success. To help start the year strong, here’s a roadmap to organize your finances and set yourself up for a prosperous year. 1. Build a Small-Scale Budget Begin by understanding your household’s monthly expenses. Establish a budget—whether detailed or loose—that accounts for your monthly spending. This foundational step is crucial for maintaining healthy, sustainable finances . 2. Plan for Big Expenses Anticipate non-regular expenditures like vacations, kids’ camps, home projects, and charitable contributions. Estimate the total cost of these items for the year and create a plan to fund them using monthly income or year-end bonuses. 3. Adjust Your Savings A new year often comes with changes to your income. Dedicate a portion of those additional funds to retirement savings. Even small increases, such as raising your 401(k) contribution by 1%, can make a significant impact over time. Incremental changes are often easier to sustain and can lead to meaningful progress. 4. Plan for Bonuses If you’re fortunate enough to receive a bonus, decide how to allocate it before it hits your account. Having no plan often leads to wasted opportunities. Use bonuses strategically for savings, debt repayment, or planned expenses. 5. Organize for Tax Season Tax documents will soon start arriving. Keep them organized to streamline your preparation process. If you pay quarterly taxes, plan accordingly. For those with significant non-qualified investment accounts, prepare for potential capital gains taxes following a strong year in the markets. 6. Tackle High-Interest Debt Destructive debt, such as credit card balances with high interest rates, requires immediate attention. Create a detailed plan to pay it off aggressively. Unchecked debt can derail even the best financial plans, so prioritize eliminating it. 7. Set a Big Financial Goal Identify one major financial objective for the year—whether it’s paying off debt, reaching a specific savings milestone, or achieving another significant target. Write it down and review it regularly to stay motivated. 8. Address Long-Overdue Tasks Choose one neglected financial task to tackle this year, such as drafting a will, purchasing life insurance , or updating an estate plan. Write it down and commit to completing it. As the new year begins, these steps can help pave the way for a healthier financial future . Here's to making progress, staying focused, and striving for incremental improvements throughout 2025! Wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year! © 2025 Forbes Media LLC. All Rights Reserved This Forbes article was legally licensed through AdvisorStream. By Andrew Rosen, Contributor Advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. Heritage Harbor Financial Associates and Osaic Wealth, Inc are separate entities.
November 20, 2024
Markets are ever-changing, and though downturns may capture headlines, the S&P 500® Index has historically enjoyed more positive years than negative.
By Amanda Gonzalez September 25, 2024
>Why is Life Insurance worth it? There are many answers to the question of why is life insurance important. But by and large, the most important one is ensuring your family’s financial security and peace of mind. If anyone depends on your income, they would most likely struggle if you were to pass away. That’s why life insurance is so important to have. There are different types of life insurance policies, but essentially they all pay cash to your loved ones when you die. Money from life insurance can be used to cover daily living expenses, a mortgage or rent payments, outstanding loans, college tuition and other essential expenses. Life insurance is the best way to ensure that your loved ones would be in a good financial place if you and your income were no longer in the picture. >What does Life Insurance cover? ...Anything! Some examples include... Immediate Expenses Funeral and burial costs Uncovered medical expenses Mortgage or rent Car loans Credit card debt Taxes Estate settlement costs Ongoing Expenses Food Housing Utilities Child care Transportation Health care and insurance Continue a family business Future Expenses College costs Retirement >Do I need Life Insurance? If someone depends on you financially, you are most likely someone who needs life insurance. Life insurance provides cash to your family or loved ones after your death. This cash, known as the death benefit, replaces your income and the many non-paid ways you support your household. Your family can use this cash to pay for expenses like funeral costs, a mortgage, college tuition and more. Just a few examples of people who often answer “yes” to the question of “Should I get life insurance?” include: Married or partnered couples Many partners find it difficult to make ends meet without the other earner’s income in the picture. Married or partnered couples with kids In addition to losing one partner’s income, the surviving parent may have to pay for childcare and more without the other parent around to pitch in. Single parents As the sole income earner for your family, you’ll want to think about how to replace your child’s only source of financial support. Stay-at-home parents From cooking meals to shuttling kids to school to helping with homework, stay-at-home parents perform many critical responsibilities that would be costly to outsource. Empty nesters Many surviving partners would not be able to maintain the lifestyle they worked so hard to achieve without life insurance. Retirees Depending on the size of your estate, your heirs could be hit with an estate-tax rate of up to 45%. Fortunately, cash from a life insurance policy gives heirs access to tax-free money to pay for immediate costs and more. Business owners Life insurance can help your business in many ways if you, a fellow owner or a key employee were to pass away >How often should I review my Life Insurance policy? As a general rule of the thumb, it’s a good idea to touch base with a financial professional at least once a year or whenever a life change happens. A life insurance review will help ensure your coverage is at the right level to protect your loved ones. >How does a Life Insurance policy pay out? In most cases, the life insurance pay out is a lump sum paid to beneficiaries when the policyholder dies. To receive the life insurance pay out, you will have to file a claim with the insurer. They will need a certified copy of the death certificate in order to process the claim. Information from: https://lifehappens.org/life-insurance-101/ Advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. Heritage Harbor Financial Associates and Osaic Wealth, Inc are separate entities.
July 31, 2024
Article by Business Insider: Tessa Campbell and Paul Kim. July 30, 2024 A 401(k) account is an employee-sponsored retirement vehicle that allows you to contribute pre-tax income toward your retirement. As one of the best retirement plans for US employees, a 401(k) lets you reduce the amount of income you're taxed on and lets your funds grow tax-free. Every year, Vanguard analyzes account data from millions of retirement accounts in a report titled "How America Saves." Knowing the average 401(k) balance by age group and income level can help you determine how much you need to retire. Here's the average 401(k) account balance based on age in 2024. Understanding the average 401(k) balance in 2024 According to Vanguard's annual data report, the average 401(k) account balance in 2024 was $134,128, an increase from 2023's average balance of $112,572. Across these accounts, the typical account balances vary widely by the method used to calculate it — while the average 401(k) savings balance is well over $100,000, the median account balance is much less at $35,286, according to Vanguard's latest data. The Vanguard data is broken down by demographics, showing a wide range of average account balances across various age ranges, income levels, industries, and genders. Here's a breakdown of those balances. Average 401(k) balance by age Retirement savings grow with compound interest, which means account balances increase with time. Like other types of retirement accounts, money saved in a 401(k) grows like a snowball, with interest earning interest on itself. The older you are, the more time you've had to build up your savings. With compounding interest, the earlier money is put into an account, the more opportunity it has to grow and the greater the possible returns. In retirement accounts like 401(k)s, building retirement savings early means a greater opportunity for growth. In 2024, employees can contribute up to $23,000 in their traditional and Roth 401(k). Folks aged 50 or older can contribute an additional catch-up contribution of $7,500 in 2024. According to Vanguard, here's the average amount people have saved for retirement by age group.

529

March 25, 2024
F‍orbes: Sara Stanich, Contributor - March 12, 2024 If you're using a 529 plan to save for your child's higher education, a recent legislative update could be a game-changer. The SECURE 2.0 Act, approved in late 2022, introduces a new perk for 529 plan holders. Starting in 2024, you may be eligible to transfer your unused 529 funds into a Roth IRA retirement plan free from taxes and penalties. Before unraveling the changes brought by the SECURE 2.0 Act, it’s important to briefly recap what a 529 plan is. A 529 plan is a savings plan with tax advantages designed to aid families in saving for future college expenses. Over the years, these plans have grown in popularity due to their tax advantages and flexibility. However, many families have been concerned about what happens to the funds if they remain unused for educational expenses. The SECURE 2.0 Act has brought a solution to address this concern. The Impact Of The SECURE 2.0 Act The SECURE 2.0 Act, passed by Congress on December 23, 2022, and signed into law by President Joe Biden a few days later, made a significant amendment to the Internal Revenue Code. This amendment allows for tax and penalty-free rollovers from 529 plans to Roth IRA retirement plan accounts starting in 2024. This new provision brings a sigh of relief to families who are apprehensive about not utilizing the money they've saved in their 529 plans. Before the SECURE 2.0 Act, you'd have to make a non-qualified withdrawal if you wished to withdraw funds from your 529 plan for non-educational expenses. Such a withdrawal is subject to income tax and a 10% federal tax penalty on earnings. But with the new regulations, you can roll over 529 funds into a beneficiary-owned Roth IRA tax-free and penalty-free starting this tax year. How Much Can Be Rolled Over? The amount you can roll over from a 529 plan into a Roth IRA account is subject to the annual Roth IRA contribution limits set by the IRS. For 2024, the annual Roth IRA contribution limit is $7,000, with an additional $1,000 allowed for individuals over 50 with the catch-up limit allowance. Moreover, there's a lifetime limit of $35,000 per beneficiary for 529 plan rollover contributions to Roth IRAs. Special Rules For 529 Plan Roth IRA Rollovers While the rollover rules are relatively straightforward, there are a few special conditions to consider: While Roth IRA contributions are usually subject to income limits, these limits are waived when rolling over from a 529 plan. This means even higher-income people can contribute to a Roth IRA through a rollover. The 529 plan must have existed for at least 15 years before any rollovers can take place. According to Saving For College, changing designated beneficiaries will likely restart this 15-year clock. You cannot roll over any contributions or earnings on contributions made in the last five years. Should You Convert Your 529 Funds To A Roth IRA Now? Transferring leftover 529 funds to a beneficiary’s Roth IRA can be an excellent way to kickstart their retirement savings. However, you may not need to rush into this. Some states that offer tax benefits for 529 contributions may not recognize these rollovers as a qualified expense; this could lead to state tax penalties. Some states must update their laws to include these rollovers as a qualified expense, while others may choose not to. It’s wise to monitor the evolving regulations and consult a tax professional for personalized advice. Other Options For Leftover 529 Funds While the new rollover option is exciting, it's not the only avenue available for your leftover 529 funds. Here are a few other options to consider: Keep the money in the account. There is currently no time limit on when funds must be withdrawn. This allows your money to continue growing tax-deferred until it's needed. Use the funds to make up to $10,000 in payments for qualified student loans for the beneficiary or their sibling. Transfer the savings to another eligible family member. You could even use it for your own higher education! Withdraw the money and use it however you like. However, this would incur taxes on any earnings, plus a 10% penalty on those earnings. If funds are leftover because the beneficiary received a scholarship, you can withdraw up to the amount of the scholarship. This withdrawal will be subject to taxation, but it avoids the 10% penalty. The SECURE 2.0 Act has brought an important change to 529 plans, giving families another reason to save for college without added concerns around unused funds. While there are limits and potential tax implications to consider, it's a significant step in the right direction, providing families with more financial flexibility and confidence. It's typically best to consult with a financial advisor or tax professional to understand the best course of action for your specific situation. With that said, here's to more financial freedom and this exciting new perk for your 529 plan. By Sara Stanich, Contributor © 2024 Forbes Media LLC. All Rights Reserved This Forbes article was legally licensed through AdvisorStream.
March 4, 2024
Article from Forbes, written by Bob Carlson, Senior Contributor Feb. 23, 2024 Married couples in or near retirement should know that the solo years, the period after one spouse passed away, usually are the most difficult period in retirement both financially and emotionally. The solo years are when most retirement plans are likely to fail or falter. The financial difficulties of the period could be reduced with proper financial planning, something missing from most retirement plans. Consider these major changes in household finances and management to which most surviving spouses must adapt: * One Social Security benefit will end. * Other sources of income, such as pensions and annuities, might end or be reduced. * Some household expenses are likely to increase. People often have to be hired to do many chores and activities the deceased spouse used to do or both spouses did together. * Income taxes are likely to increase, even after income declines, because the surviving spouse has a different filing status. Many surviving spouses are surprised to find that federal income taxes can increase substantially after one spouse passes away, even if there’s been a decline in household income. This doesn’t happen to all surviving spouses, but it happens often enough that tax and financial planners recognize it and often call the phenomenon the widow’s penalty tax. It’s more-accurately called the survivor’s penalty tax, because it applies equally to widows and widowers. The less income declines, the more significant the tax penalty is. This isn’t a separate penalty in the tax code, such as the penalty for underpaying estimated taxes. It’s a result of how the tax code interacts with the changes that occur after one spouse passes away. When both spouses are alive, the couple’s tax return filing status is married filing jointly. A surviving spouse is allowed to use the married filing jointly filing status only for the year in which the other spouse died. Beginning the first full year after one spouse passes away, the surviving spouse’s filing status changes to single. The married filing jointly status is the most beneficial while the single filing status is comparatively unfavorable. (Most widowed retirees don’t qualify for the favorable surviving spouse filing status.) Here's how the change in filing status affects a surviving spouse. In 2024, taxpayers who are married filing jointly stay in the 12 percent tax bracket until their taxable income exceeded $94,300. But a single taxpayer stayed in the 12 percent bracket only until taxable income exceeded $47,150. The 22 percent tax bracket applied to a married couple filing jointly until taxable income exceeded $201,150 but for a single taxpayer the ceiling for the 22 percent bracket was taxable income of $100,525. (The break points of the income tax brackets change each year because of inflation adjustments.) You can see the surviving spouse is hit with a double whammy. First as I said earlier, income is likely to decline. The household begins receiving only one Social Security check instead of two. Other sources of income also might decline. Second, the surviving spouse is pushed into a higher tax bracket. The income usually doesn’t decline enough to keep the surviving spouse in the same tax bracket after becoming a single taxpayer. If it did, that would be a very significant decline, requiring the income to be cut in half. Instead, the surviving spouse loses some income but also pays a higher income tax rate on the remaining income because of the change in filing status. That’s not the only federal tax penalty on a surviving spouse. Medicare beneficiaries with higher incomes are subject to a Medicare premium surtax, also known as IRMAA (income-related monthly adjustment amount). The higher a beneficiary’s modified adjusted gross income, the more Medicare premiums increase. As with income taxes, the Medicare premium surtax is imposed at different income levels on people with different tax filing statuses. A single taxpayer with the same modified adjusted gross income as a married couple will pay twice the Medicare surtax as the couple. A newly-widowed taxpayer could pay a Medicare premium surtax equal to or exceeding what the couple paid jointly. The same interplay applies to income taxes on Social Security benefits, creating another survivor’s penalty tax. The financial changes in the solo years are one reason I recommend that the spouse with the higher lifetime earnings delay receiving Social Security benefits as long as possible, preferably until age 70 when benefits are maximized. That ensures whichever spouse survives the other, the Social Security benefit coming in to the household will be as high as possible. It’s also a good idea while both spouses are alive for them to review the cost of maintaining the residence and discuss the actions the surviving spouse should take regarding the residence. That makes it likely a more thorough, less emotional decision is made and takes a burden off the surviving spouse. The couple also needs to consider other ways to counter the negative effects of the solo years, such as by obtaining permanent life insurance or spending less while both spouses are alive. By Bob Carlson, Senior Contributor © 2024 Forbes Media LLC. All Rights Reserved This Forbes article was legally licensed through AdvisorStream. Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and member of FINRA and SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
January 16, 2024
Financial Times - Written by Ruchir Sharma Jan. 10, 2024 The year gone by played out as if the pandemic had never happened. The widely anticipated global recession never came. Markets surged. Disinflation was the buzzword. The post-pandemic world unexpectedly resembled 2019 — the year before the coronavirus supposedly changed our lives forever. Yet in the end, 2023 was a reminder that most years turn out to be a mix of the surprising and the predictable. Not all the purely contrarian bets would have paid off. Europe’s economy fell farther behind the US. American mega cap tech stocks again led the charge. With that in mind, my top 10 predictions for 2024 focus on how current trends will evolve. The price of money, inflation and big tech will remain at the heart of the global conversation, though not in quite the same ways. Meanwhile, politics will command centre stage for a simple reason: the world has never seen a bigger year for elections. Democracy in overdrive Elections are scheduled to occur in more than 30 democracies including the three largest — the US, India and Indonesia. In all, 46 per cent of the global population will have an opportunity to vote, the largest share since 1800 when such records first began, says Deutsche Bank research. And voters will bring their dissatisfaction with them. The recent rise of angry populists reflects a deeper trend — distrust of incumbents. In the 50 most populated democracies, seated politicians won re-election 70 per cent of the time in the late 2000s; now they win 30 per cent of the time. Leaders of India and Indonesia buck this trend but US president Joe Biden exemplifies it. Incumbents used to enjoy the obvious advantage of high office and high visibility, but that is no longer a guarantee of popularity. Over the past 30 years, US presidents have seen their approval ratings wither away in their first terms, to lower and lower levels. At just 38 per cent, Biden’s approval rating is at a record low for this stage of a presidency. And many of his developed world peers are no more popular. These trends foretell upheaval in the roster of world leaders. Bond vigilantes versus politicians The surreal calm of 2023 gave way to mild euphoria in the closing weeks of the year as inflation fell faster than expected, creating hopes that interest rates will keep falling. This overlooks one key trend. In a campaign season political leaders are much more likely to raise than cut spending, which means mounting deficits. In the US, Biden spending programmes have already pushed the deficit up to 6 per cent of GDP, double its long-term trend and five times the average for developed economies. The key issue is the “term premium”, or the added pay-off bond investors demand for the risk of holding long-term debt. In the 2010s, with inflation low and central banks buying bonds by the billions, that risk disappeared. Only now, debts and deficits are much larger than before the pandemic, inflation has not fully retreated, and central banks are no longer big bond buyers. Even if inflation fades further, investors probably will demand something extra to keep absorbing the huge supply of government bonds. That means interest rates, long-term rates in particular, will not fall anywhere near as much as they did in previous disinflation cycles. Backlash against immigration For many reasons — from labour market shortages in the western world to war in Ukraine — immigration has exploded, up since 2019 by 20 per cent in Canada, near 35 per cent in the US and near 45 per cent in the UK. These flows are a huge plus to economies facing worker shortages, even if they are unpopular. Dutch rightwing populist Geert Wilders came first in the national ballot last year on a migrant-bashing platform. Migrants also became a campaign issue in Poland, which has become less welcoming of new waves of refugees — despite a particularly dire need. Poland’s working age population growth rate had turned negative, before the influx of immigrants turned it around. The next hotspot is the US, the largest nation with surging immigration and a 2024 election. Though the immigrants are reducing wage pressure, helping to lower inflation, the blowback is already loud and clear, led by Donald Trump. Its main target is illegal immigrants, who outnumbered legal immigrants by 2mn to 1.6mn in 2023. Whoever wins the election, the backlash is likely to spill over and slow the flow of immigrants — and the benefits they bring. The no-bust cycle Interest rates rose so sharply, it seemed almost certain that indebted businesses would fail quickly, consumers would hunker down immediately, markets would tank, recession would strike, and the world would face a classic bust in 2023. But the economy, at least in the US, proved remarkably resilient. One reason: Americans are locked into lower rates. Investment grade companies have been selling bonds with longer terms, which now average 12 years, so the burden of recent rate hikes has yet to strike. US homeowners still pay an average mortgage rate of 3.75 per cent — roughly half the rate on new mortgages. Another: during the 2010s action shifted from public to private financial markets, where there are signs of weakening, including slower flows to private funds and fewer sales of PE-owned companies. But private firms don’t have to report returns as frequently as public funds do, so the weakness won’t be fully visible for a while. The air could still come out slowly of both the economy and the markets. In a way that’s already happening, as seen in the public markets. The S&P 500 has not made a new high in two years, and is now 20 per cent above its 150-year trend, down from 45 per cent in late 2021. With borrowing costs still relatively high, the economy is likely to slide downward as well, though possibly avoiding the classic bust. European resilience In 2023, the US economy grew at 2.5 per cent, five times faster than Europe, widening a gap that has been growing for years if not decades. Europe can seem hopeless, and trashing its economic prospects rarely inspires much pushback. But against a backdrop of zero expectations, even small changes for the better can rekindle animal spirits and Japan demonstrated that point last year. Europe could do the same this year. As the Ukraine war-related energy crunch eases, inflation has collapsed from over 10 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Real wages were falling, now they are growing at a pace of 3 per cent, the fastest in three decades, giving consumers a lot of spending power. Europeans were hit harder by recent rate hikes than Americans because they have more mortgages and other long-term loans with floating rates. Now, having absorbed much of the pain of tighter money, Europe faces less pain down the road than the US does. Also, the trillions amassed by consumers during the pandemic are largely spent in the US, but continue to grow in Europe. Excess household savings currently amount to 14 per cent of annual incomes, up from 11 per cent two years ago, according to JPMorgan. The markets are taking notice. Excluding the mega cap stocks, which juiced US returns, the average stock in Europe outperformed the mighty US market in 2023. And the signs above point to a wider comeback in 2024. China fading Many China watchers continue to parrot the Beijing party line, that growth is purring along at 5 per cent — perhaps double its real potential. Asked why Beijing is not taking more aggressive steps to rescue a faltering economy, the answer from Chinese policymakers is, well, the official growth rate is fine, why take more action? Behind this absurdity are global bragging rights. President Xi Jinping aims for China to overtake the US as the world’s dominant economy, and his officials closely track its progress in nominal dollar terms — not in PPP terms, which is commonly used among western academics. In nominal terms, China’s GDP is now 66 per cent of US GDP, down from 76 per cent in 2021. Aggressive stimulus could weaken the renminbi, further shrinking the economy in dollar terms — and leaving the paramount leader farther from his goal. Better to keep up the charade, and pretend China is not fading. Global investors are looking past this nonsense, and will continue to reduce their exposure to China. Net foreign direct investment into the country has just turned negative for the first time. Beijing can avoid a crisis with this extend-and-pretend game, but that won’t keep its economy and markets from losing share to its peers. Emerging outside China Not so long ago, many smaller emerging economies thrived by selling raw materials to the largest one and grew in lockstep with China. No longer. The link has broken. Now a fading China is more of an opportunity than a challenge for the rest of the emerging world. China until recently was drawing more than 10 per cent of global foreign direct investment, and as those flows reversed, the big gainers were rival emerging countries, led by Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Poland and above all Mexico, which has seen its share more than double to 4.2 per cent. Investors are moving to countries where they can trust the economic authorities. During the pandemic, emerging world governments refrained from borrowing too heavily. Central banks avoided large bond purchases, and moved more quickly than developed world peers to raise rates when inflation returned. Even Turkey and Argentina, once emblems of irresponsibility, have embraced policy orthodoxy. At the start of 2023, many observers feared that rising rates would rekindle the instability of the 1990s, when dozens of emerging nations were defaulting each year. What happened? Two minor emerging markets (Ghana and Ethiopia) and not a single major one defaulted in the course of the year. Emerging nations are surprising for their resilience, not their fragility, and the world is likely to start taking notice in the coming year. Dollar decline Late in 2022, the value of the dollar hit a two-decade high against other major currencies and has since drifted downward. History suggests that dollar down-cycles last around seven years. And signs are the decline could accelerate. Even now, the dollar remains overvalued against every major currency. Most economists are still confident that the dollar won’t fall much because there is no alternative and investors will never tire of buying US debt. Too confident. At over 10 per cent of GDP, the US twin deficit — including the government budget and the current account — is more than twice the average for other countries. Since 2000 US net debts to the rest of the world have more than quadrupled to 66 per cent of GDP — while on average other developed countries were reducing their debt load and emerging as net creditors. The search for alternatives is on. Foreign central banks are moving reserves to rival currencies and buying gold at a record pace. The United Arab Emirates recently joined Russia and other oil producers who accept payment in currencies other than the dollar. And if America’s rising debt burden slows its economy faster than expected — a real possibility — the dollar faces a double-barrelled threat in 2024. Splintering the Magnificent Seven In 2023 the big US tech stocks boomed anew on the widespread assumption that they are the only firms rich enough to capitalise on the next big thing, artificial intelligence. Yet only three of the seven are major players in AI: Microsoft, Alphabet and Nvidia. Only one, Nvidia, is making real money on AI. The rest, blessed by association with the buzzword du jour, saw their stock market value rise well in excess of their earnings growth. This is a familiar syndrome: a new innovation excites investors, who pour money into any company loosely related to that innovation, until they realise that most aren’t going to make money on it anytime soon. This happened in the dotcom era, and it is happening now. Already expectations for 2024 earnings by the big seven are fracturing: rising rapidly for Nvidia, barely at all for Apple, and shrinking for Tesla. AI mania is unfolding against an unusual backdrop, in that the rest of the tech sector is in a mini recession. Venture capital funding has fallen sharply. Led by Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, more than 1,100 technology firms laid off workers last year; the net loss of 70,000 jobs made tech the only sector, outside motion pictures, to downsize in 2023. A further culling, not a boom, is more likely in 2024. Hollywood’s Napoleon complex No doubt the pandemic left many people leery of indoor spaces, but for the most part bars, restaurants and other entertainments are packed again. Movie theatres, however, are not. Ticket sales have yet to top 900mn in the US domestic market, down from 1.2bn in 2019 and nearly 1.6bn at the peak in 2002. Hollywood’s problems are well known, including the challenges from streaming services and other online media, and the limits of its blockbuster action film formula. Underplayed in all this is a growing tendency to filter scripts through a progressive lens, increasing their appeal to the liberal 30 per cent of the population, at the risk of alienating the rest. One can hear the axes grinding in many new releases but perhaps most crudely in Napoleon, a politicised parody of one of history’s most complex figures. In Ridley Scott’s telling, the emperor was neither grand military strategist, nor champion of republican revolution, nor civil service and education reformer — just a cranky little murderer. The film ends with a scroll of battlefield death tolls. Asked whether he had seen it, a French-born conservative friend told me “of course not”. He knew Hollywood would render Napoleon to fit its own political worldview. That may draw applause from the Academy — it won’t help revive box office revenues. The writer is chair of Rockefeller International and an FT columnist Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024 © 2024 The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved. Please do not copy and paste FT articles and redistribute by email or post to the web. This article was legally licensed by AdvisorStream Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and member of FINRA and SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.

RMD

December 15, 2023
Barron's Article By Elizabeth O'Brien Dec. 15, 2023 The data used in Fidelity's estimate was current as of Nov. 28. The deadline for taking RMDs is Dec. 31, so it isn't too late, but waiting until the last minute is risky because the transactions involved often require a few business days. RMDs are the government's way of getting its share of retirement savings that has grown tax-deferred for decades. Starting in your early 70s— or possibly earlier, if you inherit an account—you must withdraw a certain sum from your qualifying retirement accounts each year. Generally, that means your traditional requirement accounts; Roth 401(k)s are subject to RMDs this year but will become exempt starting in 2024. The amount withdrawn counts toward your taxable income. This year is unusual in that there isn't a big cohort of 70-somethings taking their RMDs for the first time. The starting age had been 72 until the Secure 2.0 Act passed at the end of 2022 bumped it up to 73, effective this year. People turning 73 this year were subject to the requirement last year at age 72, while people turning 72 this year got a reprieve until 2024. When it comes to timing your RMD, there's no right or wrong answer—unless you blow the deadline, that is. In that case, you're subject to penalties of up to 25% of the amount not taken on time. The amount you must withdraw is based on your age and your account balances at the end of the prior year, so waiting until the end of the year won't impact the number. (The amount is calculated across all of your qualifying retirement accounts. Financial firms usually calculate their clients' RMDs, but it's up to you to tally the total if you have accounts across multiple firms.) If you need your RMD to meet living expenses, a good approach is to automate withdrawals on a schedule. A regular, paycheck-like withdrawal helps both with budgeting and satisfying your RMD, says Chris Briscoe, director of financial planning at Girard Advisory Services in King of Prussia, Pa. About 40% of Fidelity's RMD-eligible customers choose to automate their withdrawals, according to Rita Assaf, vice president of retirement products. Fidelity defaults to withdrawing 10% of RMDs for federal taxes—customers can change that amount if they wish—and state taxes are withheld according to state-specific requirements, according to a spokesperson. If you don't have enough withheld from your withdrawals, you risk owing money at tax time. Those who don't need their RMD for living expenses often like to see how the market performs before taking their withdrawal. Waiting has paid off in 2023: Hanging onto your RMD has allowed that money to benefit from the stock market's strong gains in Novemberand so far this month. Last year was a different story, as stocks and bonds both tanked. People who don't need their RMD can donate it to charity through a qualifying charitable distribution (QCD). In this approach, account holders never touch their withdrawal—it goes directly from their brokerage firm to a qualifying nonprofit. This process typically involves a check going via mail, so it's important to act soon if you'd like to pursue it for this year, Assaf says. Unlike regular RMDs, withdrawals donated through a QCD do not count toward your taxable income for the year. This can be particularly beneficial for those whose RMDs would otherwise bump them into a higher income-tax bracket or a higher income tier for Medicare premiums. Briscoe says he's noticed an uptick in clients interested in QCDs this year. Despite his best efforts to nudge them into action, some clients always go down to the wire with their RMD. His advice: "Just get it over with." Write to Elizabeth O'Brien at elizabeth.obrien@barrons.com This Barron's article was legally licensed by AdvisorStream. Copyright 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and member of FINRA and SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
November 29, 2023
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November 16, 2023
Make a holiday budget, well before the holidays. Make a list of all of your essential holiday-related expenses. But be as specific as you can, since extra expenses like stamps for your holiday cards or extra rolls of wrapping paper can tack on a significant layer of cost that goes well beyond gifts and travel. Decide how much money you can afford to spend in total, and then divvy it up by item, recipient, etc. Most importantly, stick to the plan as the season progresses. It's easy to be swept up in holiday cheer or caught off guard with last-minute purchases. Setting a budget in advance will help you figure out how much money you can devote to each category of expenses, including gifts, food, entertaining and other holiday cheer. Be careful of spending on your credit cards. Credit cards can be a useful tool to cover some of your holiday spending. That said, it's important not to get so carried away that you overuse or even max out your available credit. Before sitting down to map out your holiday spending, make a list of how much debt you're already carrying on your credit cards. Also, be aware of how that debt reflects your total debt-to-credit ratio, which most lenders prefer to see at or below 30 percent. Set a hard limit on the amount of credit you'll use throughout the season and be firm about not spending more than you can realistically pay back. Save now—spend later. Socking away small, affordable amounts is a great way to build a lifelong savings habit. It can also take the edge off when it comes to the holiday season. Find a way to easily set aside a few dollars from each paycheck, whether it's monthly, semi-monthly or weekly, and make sure that cash goes directly into a separate savings account. If you save $5 per day, that's $35 per week or $1,820 over the course of a year, which you can use to fully fund your holiday spending, pay down debt or prepare for retirement. Once you get used to saving $35 each week, try upping that to $40 and then $50. You'll create a manageable savings strategy that will help you develop true financial stability. Get crafty when you can. Nothing says “I love you” quite like a homemade gift. Plus, it ensures the recipient will become the proud owner of a one-of-a-kind item or get to enjoy a tasty treat. If you're not especially crafty but lack the funds to buy something for everyone on your list, consider creating your own “gift cards.” For example, you could pledge to lend your time and energy to help a relative or friend clean their home or volunteer to babysit for friends with children who could use a night out. The spirit of giving shows someone you care about them, and some gifts—whether you spend money, make something from scratch or donate your time—are priceless. Make your travel plans as early as possible. If you're one of the more than 115 million Americans who travel during the holidays, you probably already know firsthand that booking flights, renting a car and paying for gas or other travel expenses can add up quickly. Airlines, train stations, hotels and others in the travel industry tend to charge higher rates around the holidays, and those prices only rise as year-end approaches. Although it's hard to not be sucked into the spending cycle of the holidays, a bit of forethought and budgeting will go a long way toward getting you through the end of the year with your finances intact. Source: https://www.equifax.com/personal/education/personal-finance/articles/-/learn/prepare-your-finances-for-holidays/?emlid=703965&Et_rid=81930103 Important Information from FINRA to consider before transferring your account. Trading instructions sent via email may not be honored. Please contact my office at 631-331-6599 or Securities America, Inc. at 800‐747‐6111 for all buy/sell orders. Please be advised that communications regarding trades in your account are for informational purposes only. You should continue to rely on confirmations and statements received from the custodian(s) of your assets. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors , Inc. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Heritage Harbor Financial Associates and Securities America are separate entities.Your cooperation is appreciated.​
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January 16, 2025
As we enter 2025, it’s the perfect time to set goals and establish a financial game plan for the year ahead. Whether it's adjusting to a new salary, planning for big expenses, or refining life goals, now is the ideal moment to lay the groundwork for success. To help start the year strong, here’s a roadmap to organize your finances and set yourself up for a prosperous year. 1. Build a Small-Scale Budget Begin by understanding your household’s monthly expenses. Establish a budget—whether detailed or loose—that accounts for your monthly spending. This foundational step is crucial for maintaining healthy, sustainable finances . 2. Plan for Big Expenses Anticipate non-regular expenditures like vacations, kids’ camps, home projects, and charitable contributions. Estimate the total cost of these items for the year and create a plan to fund them using monthly income or year-end bonuses. 3. Adjust Your Savings A new year often comes with changes to your income. Dedicate a portion of those additional funds to retirement savings. Even small increases, such as raising your 401(k) contribution by 1%, can make a significant impact over time. Incremental changes are often easier to sustain and can lead to meaningful progress. 4. Plan for Bonuses If you’re fortunate enough to receive a bonus, decide how to allocate it before it hits your account. Having no plan often leads to wasted opportunities. Use bonuses strategically for savings, debt repayment, or planned expenses. 5. Organize for Tax Season Tax documents will soon start arriving. Keep them organized to streamline your preparation process. If you pay quarterly taxes, plan accordingly. For those with significant non-qualified investment accounts, prepare for potential capital gains taxes following a strong year in the markets. 6. Tackle High-Interest Debt Destructive debt, such as credit card balances with high interest rates, requires immediate attention. Create a detailed plan to pay it off aggressively. Unchecked debt can derail even the best financial plans, so prioritize eliminating it. 7. Set a Big Financial Goal Identify one major financial objective for the year—whether it’s paying off debt, reaching a specific savings milestone, or achieving another significant target. Write it down and review it regularly to stay motivated. 8. Address Long-Overdue Tasks Choose one neglected financial task to tackle this year, such as drafting a will, purchasing life insurance , or updating an estate plan. Write it down and commit to completing it. As the new year begins, these steps can help pave the way for a healthier financial future . Here's to making progress, staying focused, and striving for incremental improvements throughout 2025! Wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year! © 2025 Forbes Media LLC. All Rights Reserved This Forbes article was legally licensed through AdvisorStream. By Andrew Rosen, Contributor Advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. Heritage Harbor Financial Associates and Osaic Wealth, Inc are separate entities.
November 20, 2024
Markets are ever-changing, and though downturns may capture headlines, the S&P 500® Index has historically enjoyed more positive years than negative.
By Amanda Gonzalez September 25, 2024
>Why is Life Insurance worth it? There are many answers to the question of why is life insurance important. But by and large, the most important one is ensuring your family’s financial security and peace of mind. If anyone depends on your income, they would most likely struggle if you were to pass away. That’s why life insurance is so important to have. There are different types of life insurance policies, but essentially they all pay cash to your loved ones when you die. Money from life insurance can be used to cover daily living expenses, a mortgage or rent payments, outstanding loans, college tuition and other essential expenses. Life insurance is the best way to ensure that your loved ones would be in a good financial place if you and your income were no longer in the picture. >What does Life Insurance cover? ...Anything! Some examples include... Immediate Expenses Funeral and burial costs Uncovered medical expenses Mortgage or rent Car loans Credit card debt Taxes Estate settlement costs Ongoing Expenses Food Housing Utilities Child care Transportation Health care and insurance Continue a family business Future Expenses College costs Retirement >Do I need Life Insurance? If someone depends on you financially, you are most likely someone who needs life insurance. Life insurance provides cash to your family or loved ones after your death. This cash, known as the death benefit, replaces your income and the many non-paid ways you support your household. Your family can use this cash to pay for expenses like funeral costs, a mortgage, college tuition and more. Just a few examples of people who often answer “yes” to the question of “Should I get life insurance?” include: Married or partnered couples Many partners find it difficult to make ends meet without the other earner’s income in the picture. Married or partnered couples with kids In addition to losing one partner’s income, the surviving parent may have to pay for childcare and more without the other parent around to pitch in. Single parents As the sole income earner for your family, you’ll want to think about how to replace your child’s only source of financial support. Stay-at-home parents From cooking meals to shuttling kids to school to helping with homework, stay-at-home parents perform many critical responsibilities that would be costly to outsource. Empty nesters Many surviving partners would not be able to maintain the lifestyle they worked so hard to achieve without life insurance. Retirees Depending on the size of your estate, your heirs could be hit with an estate-tax rate of up to 45%. Fortunately, cash from a life insurance policy gives heirs access to tax-free money to pay for immediate costs and more. Business owners Life insurance can help your business in many ways if you, a fellow owner or a key employee were to pass away >How often should I review my Life Insurance policy? As a general rule of the thumb, it’s a good idea to touch base with a financial professional at least once a year or whenever a life change happens. A life insurance review will help ensure your coverage is at the right level to protect your loved ones. >How does a Life Insurance policy pay out? In most cases, the life insurance pay out is a lump sum paid to beneficiaries when the policyholder dies. To receive the life insurance pay out, you will have to file a claim with the insurer. They will need a certified copy of the death certificate in order to process the claim. Information from: https://lifehappens.org/life-insurance-101/ Advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Securities offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Osaic Wealth is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth. Heritage Harbor Financial Associates and Osaic Wealth, Inc are separate entities.
July 31, 2024
Article by Business Insider: Tessa Campbell and Paul Kim. July 30, 2024 A 401(k) account is an employee-sponsored retirement vehicle that allows you to contribute pre-tax income toward your retirement. As one of the best retirement plans for US employees, a 401(k) lets you reduce the amount of income you're taxed on and lets your funds grow tax-free. Every year, Vanguard analyzes account data from millions of retirement accounts in a report titled "How America Saves." Knowing the average 401(k) balance by age group and income level can help you determine how much you need to retire. Here's the average 401(k) account balance based on age in 2024. Understanding the average 401(k) balance in 2024 According to Vanguard's annual data report, the average 401(k) account balance in 2024 was $134,128, an increase from 2023's average balance of $112,572. Across these accounts, the typical account balances vary widely by the method used to calculate it — while the average 401(k) savings balance is well over $100,000, the median account balance is much less at $35,286, according to Vanguard's latest data. The Vanguard data is broken down by demographics, showing a wide range of average account balances across various age ranges, income levels, industries, and genders. Here's a breakdown of those balances. Average 401(k) balance by age Retirement savings grow with compound interest, which means account balances increase with time. Like other types of retirement accounts, money saved in a 401(k) grows like a snowball, with interest earning interest on itself. The older you are, the more time you've had to build up your savings. With compounding interest, the earlier money is put into an account, the more opportunity it has to grow and the greater the possible returns. In retirement accounts like 401(k)s, building retirement savings early means a greater opportunity for growth. In 2024, employees can contribute up to $23,000 in their traditional and Roth 401(k). Folks aged 50 or older can contribute an additional catch-up contribution of $7,500 in 2024. According to Vanguard, here's the average amount people have saved for retirement by age group.

529

March 25, 2024
F‍orbes: Sara Stanich, Contributor - March 12, 2024 If you're using a 529 plan to save for your child's higher education, a recent legislative update could be a game-changer. The SECURE 2.0 Act, approved in late 2022, introduces a new perk for 529 plan holders. Starting in 2024, you may be eligible to transfer your unused 529 funds into a Roth IRA retirement plan free from taxes and penalties. Before unraveling the changes brought by the SECURE 2.0 Act, it’s important to briefly recap what a 529 plan is. A 529 plan is a savings plan with tax advantages designed to aid families in saving for future college expenses. Over the years, these plans have grown in popularity due to their tax advantages and flexibility. However, many families have been concerned about what happens to the funds if they remain unused for educational expenses. The SECURE 2.0 Act has brought a solution to address this concern. The Impact Of The SECURE 2.0 Act The SECURE 2.0 Act, passed by Congress on December 23, 2022, and signed into law by President Joe Biden a few days later, made a significant amendment to the Internal Revenue Code. This amendment allows for tax and penalty-free rollovers from 529 plans to Roth IRA retirement plan accounts starting in 2024. This new provision brings a sigh of relief to families who are apprehensive about not utilizing the money they've saved in their 529 plans. Before the SECURE 2.0 Act, you'd have to make a non-qualified withdrawal if you wished to withdraw funds from your 529 plan for non-educational expenses. Such a withdrawal is subject to income tax and a 10% federal tax penalty on earnings. But with the new regulations, you can roll over 529 funds into a beneficiary-owned Roth IRA tax-free and penalty-free starting this tax year. How Much Can Be Rolled Over? The amount you can roll over from a 529 plan into a Roth IRA account is subject to the annual Roth IRA contribution limits set by the IRS. For 2024, the annual Roth IRA contribution limit is $7,000, with an additional $1,000 allowed for individuals over 50 with the catch-up limit allowance. Moreover, there's a lifetime limit of $35,000 per beneficiary for 529 plan rollover contributions to Roth IRAs. Special Rules For 529 Plan Roth IRA Rollovers While the rollover rules are relatively straightforward, there are a few special conditions to consider: While Roth IRA contributions are usually subject to income limits, these limits are waived when rolling over from a 529 plan. This means even higher-income people can contribute to a Roth IRA through a rollover. The 529 plan must have existed for at least 15 years before any rollovers can take place. According to Saving For College, changing designated beneficiaries will likely restart this 15-year clock. You cannot roll over any contributions or earnings on contributions made in the last five years. Should You Convert Your 529 Funds To A Roth IRA Now? Transferring leftover 529 funds to a beneficiary’s Roth IRA can be an excellent way to kickstart their retirement savings. However, you may not need to rush into this. Some states that offer tax benefits for 529 contributions may not recognize these rollovers as a qualified expense; this could lead to state tax penalties. Some states must update their laws to include these rollovers as a qualified expense, while others may choose not to. It’s wise to monitor the evolving regulations and consult a tax professional for personalized advice. Other Options For Leftover 529 Funds While the new rollover option is exciting, it's not the only avenue available for your leftover 529 funds. Here are a few other options to consider: Keep the money in the account. There is currently no time limit on when funds must be withdrawn. This allows your money to continue growing tax-deferred until it's needed. Use the funds to make up to $10,000 in payments for qualified student loans for the beneficiary or their sibling. Transfer the savings to another eligible family member. You could even use it for your own higher education! Withdraw the money and use it however you like. However, this would incur taxes on any earnings, plus a 10% penalty on those earnings. If funds are leftover because the beneficiary received a scholarship, you can withdraw up to the amount of the scholarship. This withdrawal will be subject to taxation, but it avoids the 10% penalty. The SECURE 2.0 Act has brought an important change to 529 plans, giving families another reason to save for college without added concerns around unused funds. While there are limits and potential tax implications to consider, it's a significant step in the right direction, providing families with more financial flexibility and confidence. It's typically best to consult with a financial advisor or tax professional to understand the best course of action for your specific situation. With that said, here's to more financial freedom and this exciting new perk for your 529 plan. By Sara Stanich, Contributor © 2024 Forbes Media LLC. All Rights Reserved This Forbes article was legally licensed through AdvisorStream.
March 4, 2024
Article from Forbes, written by Bob Carlson, Senior Contributor Feb. 23, 2024 Married couples in or near retirement should know that the solo years, the period after one spouse passed away, usually are the most difficult period in retirement both financially and emotionally. The solo years are when most retirement plans are likely to fail or falter. The financial difficulties of the period could be reduced with proper financial planning, something missing from most retirement plans. Consider these major changes in household finances and management to which most surviving spouses must adapt: * One Social Security benefit will end. * Other sources of income, such as pensions and annuities, might end or be reduced. * Some household expenses are likely to increase. People often have to be hired to do many chores and activities the deceased spouse used to do or both spouses did together. * Income taxes are likely to increase, even after income declines, because the surviving spouse has a different filing status. Many surviving spouses are surprised to find that federal income taxes can increase substantially after one spouse passes away, even if there’s been a decline in household income. This doesn’t happen to all surviving spouses, but it happens often enough that tax and financial planners recognize it and often call the phenomenon the widow’s penalty tax. It’s more-accurately called the survivor’s penalty tax, because it applies equally to widows and widowers. The less income declines, the more significant the tax penalty is. This isn’t a separate penalty in the tax code, such as the penalty for underpaying estimated taxes. It’s a result of how the tax code interacts with the changes that occur after one spouse passes away. When both spouses are alive, the couple’s tax return filing status is married filing jointly. A surviving spouse is allowed to use the married filing jointly filing status only for the year in which the other spouse died. Beginning the first full year after one spouse passes away, the surviving spouse’s filing status changes to single. The married filing jointly status is the most beneficial while the single filing status is comparatively unfavorable. (Most widowed retirees don’t qualify for the favorable surviving spouse filing status.) Here's how the change in filing status affects a surviving spouse. In 2024, taxpayers who are married filing jointly stay in the 12 percent tax bracket until their taxable income exceeded $94,300. But a single taxpayer stayed in the 12 percent bracket only until taxable income exceeded $47,150. The 22 percent tax bracket applied to a married couple filing jointly until taxable income exceeded $201,150 but for a single taxpayer the ceiling for the 22 percent bracket was taxable income of $100,525. (The break points of the income tax brackets change each year because of inflation adjustments.) You can see the surviving spouse is hit with a double whammy. First as I said earlier, income is likely to decline. The household begins receiving only one Social Security check instead of two. Other sources of income also might decline. Second, the surviving spouse is pushed into a higher tax bracket. The income usually doesn’t decline enough to keep the surviving spouse in the same tax bracket after becoming a single taxpayer. If it did, that would be a very significant decline, requiring the income to be cut in half. Instead, the surviving spouse loses some income but also pays a higher income tax rate on the remaining income because of the change in filing status. That’s not the only federal tax penalty on a surviving spouse. Medicare beneficiaries with higher incomes are subject to a Medicare premium surtax, also known as IRMAA (income-related monthly adjustment amount). The higher a beneficiary’s modified adjusted gross income, the more Medicare premiums increase. As with income taxes, the Medicare premium surtax is imposed at different income levels on people with different tax filing statuses. A single taxpayer with the same modified adjusted gross income as a married couple will pay twice the Medicare surtax as the couple. A newly-widowed taxpayer could pay a Medicare premium surtax equal to or exceeding what the couple paid jointly. The same interplay applies to income taxes on Social Security benefits, creating another survivor’s penalty tax. The financial changes in the solo years are one reason I recommend that the spouse with the higher lifetime earnings delay receiving Social Security benefits as long as possible, preferably until age 70 when benefits are maximized. That ensures whichever spouse survives the other, the Social Security benefit coming in to the household will be as high as possible. It’s also a good idea while both spouses are alive for them to review the cost of maintaining the residence and discuss the actions the surviving spouse should take regarding the residence. That makes it likely a more thorough, less emotional decision is made and takes a burden off the surviving spouse. The couple also needs to consider other ways to counter the negative effects of the solo years, such as by obtaining permanent life insurance or spending less while both spouses are alive. By Bob Carlson, Senior Contributor © 2024 Forbes Media LLC. All Rights Reserved This Forbes article was legally licensed through AdvisorStream. Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and member of FINRA and SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
January 16, 2024
Financial Times - Written by Ruchir Sharma Jan. 10, 2024 The year gone by played out as if the pandemic had never happened. The widely anticipated global recession never came. Markets surged. Disinflation was the buzzword. The post-pandemic world unexpectedly resembled 2019 — the year before the coronavirus supposedly changed our lives forever. Yet in the end, 2023 was a reminder that most years turn out to be a mix of the surprising and the predictable. Not all the purely contrarian bets would have paid off. Europe’s economy fell farther behind the US. American mega cap tech stocks again led the charge. With that in mind, my top 10 predictions for 2024 focus on how current trends will evolve. The price of money, inflation and big tech will remain at the heart of the global conversation, though not in quite the same ways. Meanwhile, politics will command centre stage for a simple reason: the world has never seen a bigger year for elections. Democracy in overdrive Elections are scheduled to occur in more than 30 democracies including the three largest — the US, India and Indonesia. In all, 46 per cent of the global population will have an opportunity to vote, the largest share since 1800 when such records first began, says Deutsche Bank research. And voters will bring their dissatisfaction with them. The recent rise of angry populists reflects a deeper trend — distrust of incumbents. In the 50 most populated democracies, seated politicians won re-election 70 per cent of the time in the late 2000s; now they win 30 per cent of the time. Leaders of India and Indonesia buck this trend but US president Joe Biden exemplifies it. Incumbents used to enjoy the obvious advantage of high office and high visibility, but that is no longer a guarantee of popularity. Over the past 30 years, US presidents have seen their approval ratings wither away in their first terms, to lower and lower levels. At just 38 per cent, Biden’s approval rating is at a record low for this stage of a presidency. And many of his developed world peers are no more popular. These trends foretell upheaval in the roster of world leaders. Bond vigilantes versus politicians The surreal calm of 2023 gave way to mild euphoria in the closing weeks of the year as inflation fell faster than expected, creating hopes that interest rates will keep falling. This overlooks one key trend. In a campaign season political leaders are much more likely to raise than cut spending, which means mounting deficits. In the US, Biden spending programmes have already pushed the deficit up to 6 per cent of GDP, double its long-term trend and five times the average for developed economies. The key issue is the “term premium”, or the added pay-off bond investors demand for the risk of holding long-term debt. In the 2010s, with inflation low and central banks buying bonds by the billions, that risk disappeared. Only now, debts and deficits are much larger than before the pandemic, inflation has not fully retreated, and central banks are no longer big bond buyers. Even if inflation fades further, investors probably will demand something extra to keep absorbing the huge supply of government bonds. That means interest rates, long-term rates in particular, will not fall anywhere near as much as they did in previous disinflation cycles. Backlash against immigration For many reasons — from labour market shortages in the western world to war in Ukraine — immigration has exploded, up since 2019 by 20 per cent in Canada, near 35 per cent in the US and near 45 per cent in the UK. These flows are a huge plus to economies facing worker shortages, even if they are unpopular. Dutch rightwing populist Geert Wilders came first in the national ballot last year on a migrant-bashing platform. Migrants also became a campaign issue in Poland, which has become less welcoming of new waves of refugees — despite a particularly dire need. Poland’s working age population growth rate had turned negative, before the influx of immigrants turned it around. The next hotspot is the US, the largest nation with surging immigration and a 2024 election. Though the immigrants are reducing wage pressure, helping to lower inflation, the blowback is already loud and clear, led by Donald Trump. Its main target is illegal immigrants, who outnumbered legal immigrants by 2mn to 1.6mn in 2023. Whoever wins the election, the backlash is likely to spill over and slow the flow of immigrants — and the benefits they bring. The no-bust cycle Interest rates rose so sharply, it seemed almost certain that indebted businesses would fail quickly, consumers would hunker down immediately, markets would tank, recession would strike, and the world would face a classic bust in 2023. But the economy, at least in the US, proved remarkably resilient. One reason: Americans are locked into lower rates. Investment grade companies have been selling bonds with longer terms, which now average 12 years, so the burden of recent rate hikes has yet to strike. US homeowners still pay an average mortgage rate of 3.75 per cent — roughly half the rate on new mortgages. Another: during the 2010s action shifted from public to private financial markets, where there are signs of weakening, including slower flows to private funds and fewer sales of PE-owned companies. But private firms don’t have to report returns as frequently as public funds do, so the weakness won’t be fully visible for a while. The air could still come out slowly of both the economy and the markets. In a way that’s already happening, as seen in the public markets. The S&P 500 has not made a new high in two years, and is now 20 per cent above its 150-year trend, down from 45 per cent in late 2021. With borrowing costs still relatively high, the economy is likely to slide downward as well, though possibly avoiding the classic bust. European resilience In 2023, the US economy grew at 2.5 per cent, five times faster than Europe, widening a gap that has been growing for years if not decades. Europe can seem hopeless, and trashing its economic prospects rarely inspires much pushback. But against a backdrop of zero expectations, even small changes for the better can rekindle animal spirits and Japan demonstrated that point last year. Europe could do the same this year. As the Ukraine war-related energy crunch eases, inflation has collapsed from over 10 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Real wages were falling, now they are growing at a pace of 3 per cent, the fastest in three decades, giving consumers a lot of spending power. Europeans were hit harder by recent rate hikes than Americans because they have more mortgages and other long-term loans with floating rates. Now, having absorbed much of the pain of tighter money, Europe faces less pain down the road than the US does. Also, the trillions amassed by consumers during the pandemic are largely spent in the US, but continue to grow in Europe. Excess household savings currently amount to 14 per cent of annual incomes, up from 11 per cent two years ago, according to JPMorgan. The markets are taking notice. Excluding the mega cap stocks, which juiced US returns, the average stock in Europe outperformed the mighty US market in 2023. And the signs above point to a wider comeback in 2024. China fading Many China watchers continue to parrot the Beijing party line, that growth is purring along at 5 per cent — perhaps double its real potential. Asked why Beijing is not taking more aggressive steps to rescue a faltering economy, the answer from Chinese policymakers is, well, the official growth rate is fine, why take more action? Behind this absurdity are global bragging rights. President Xi Jinping aims for China to overtake the US as the world’s dominant economy, and his officials closely track its progress in nominal dollar terms — not in PPP terms, which is commonly used among western academics. In nominal terms, China’s GDP is now 66 per cent of US GDP, down from 76 per cent in 2021. Aggressive stimulus could weaken the renminbi, further shrinking the economy in dollar terms — and leaving the paramount leader farther from his goal. Better to keep up the charade, and pretend China is not fading. Global investors are looking past this nonsense, and will continue to reduce their exposure to China. Net foreign direct investment into the country has just turned negative for the first time. Beijing can avoid a crisis with this extend-and-pretend game, but that won’t keep its economy and markets from losing share to its peers. Emerging outside China Not so long ago, many smaller emerging economies thrived by selling raw materials to the largest one and grew in lockstep with China. No longer. The link has broken. Now a fading China is more of an opportunity than a challenge for the rest of the emerging world. China until recently was drawing more than 10 per cent of global foreign direct investment, and as those flows reversed, the big gainers were rival emerging countries, led by Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Poland and above all Mexico, which has seen its share more than double to 4.2 per cent. Investors are moving to countries where they can trust the economic authorities. During the pandemic, emerging world governments refrained from borrowing too heavily. Central banks avoided large bond purchases, and moved more quickly than developed world peers to raise rates when inflation returned. Even Turkey and Argentina, once emblems of irresponsibility, have embraced policy orthodoxy. At the start of 2023, many observers feared that rising rates would rekindle the instability of the 1990s, when dozens of emerging nations were defaulting each year. What happened? Two minor emerging markets (Ghana and Ethiopia) and not a single major one defaulted in the course of the year. Emerging nations are surprising for their resilience, not their fragility, and the world is likely to start taking notice in the coming year. Dollar decline Late in 2022, the value of the dollar hit a two-decade high against other major currencies and has since drifted downward. History suggests that dollar down-cycles last around seven years. And signs are the decline could accelerate. Even now, the dollar remains overvalued against every major currency. Most economists are still confident that the dollar won’t fall much because there is no alternative and investors will never tire of buying US debt. Too confident. At over 10 per cent of GDP, the US twin deficit — including the government budget and the current account — is more than twice the average for other countries. Since 2000 US net debts to the rest of the world have more than quadrupled to 66 per cent of GDP — while on average other developed countries were reducing their debt load and emerging as net creditors. The search for alternatives is on. Foreign central banks are moving reserves to rival currencies and buying gold at a record pace. The United Arab Emirates recently joined Russia and other oil producers who accept payment in currencies other than the dollar. And if America’s rising debt burden slows its economy faster than expected — a real possibility — the dollar faces a double-barrelled threat in 2024. Splintering the Magnificent Seven In 2023 the big US tech stocks boomed anew on the widespread assumption that they are the only firms rich enough to capitalise on the next big thing, artificial intelligence. Yet only three of the seven are major players in AI: Microsoft, Alphabet and Nvidia. Only one, Nvidia, is making real money on AI. The rest, blessed by association with the buzzword du jour, saw their stock market value rise well in excess of their earnings growth. This is a familiar syndrome: a new innovation excites investors, who pour money into any company loosely related to that innovation, until they realise that most aren’t going to make money on it anytime soon. This happened in the dotcom era, and it is happening now. Already expectations for 2024 earnings by the big seven are fracturing: rising rapidly for Nvidia, barely at all for Apple, and shrinking for Tesla. AI mania is unfolding against an unusual backdrop, in that the rest of the tech sector is in a mini recession. Venture capital funding has fallen sharply. Led by Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, more than 1,100 technology firms laid off workers last year; the net loss of 70,000 jobs made tech the only sector, outside motion pictures, to downsize in 2023. A further culling, not a boom, is more likely in 2024. Hollywood’s Napoleon complex No doubt the pandemic left many people leery of indoor spaces, but for the most part bars, restaurants and other entertainments are packed again. Movie theatres, however, are not. Ticket sales have yet to top 900mn in the US domestic market, down from 1.2bn in 2019 and nearly 1.6bn at the peak in 2002. Hollywood’s problems are well known, including the challenges from streaming services and other online media, and the limits of its blockbuster action film formula. Underplayed in all this is a growing tendency to filter scripts through a progressive lens, increasing their appeal to the liberal 30 per cent of the population, at the risk of alienating the rest. One can hear the axes grinding in many new releases but perhaps most crudely in Napoleon, a politicised parody of one of history’s most complex figures. In Ridley Scott’s telling, the emperor was neither grand military strategist, nor champion of republican revolution, nor civil service and education reformer — just a cranky little murderer. The film ends with a scroll of battlefield death tolls. Asked whether he had seen it, a French-born conservative friend told me “of course not”. He knew Hollywood would render Napoleon to fit its own political worldview. That may draw applause from the Academy — it won’t help revive box office revenues. The writer is chair of Rockefeller International and an FT columnist Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024 © 2024 The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved. Please do not copy and paste FT articles and redistribute by email or post to the web. This article was legally licensed by AdvisorStream Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and member of FINRA and SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.

RMD

December 15, 2023
Barron's Article By Elizabeth O'Brien Dec. 15, 2023 The data used in Fidelity's estimate was current as of Nov. 28. The deadline for taking RMDs is Dec. 31, so it isn't too late, but waiting until the last minute is risky because the transactions involved often require a few business days. RMDs are the government's way of getting its share of retirement savings that has grown tax-deferred for decades. Starting in your early 70s— or possibly earlier, if you inherit an account—you must withdraw a certain sum from your qualifying retirement accounts each year. Generally, that means your traditional requirement accounts; Roth 401(k)s are subject to RMDs this year but will become exempt starting in 2024. The amount withdrawn counts toward your taxable income. This year is unusual in that there isn't a big cohort of 70-somethings taking their RMDs for the first time. The starting age had been 72 until the Secure 2.0 Act passed at the end of 2022 bumped it up to 73, effective this year. People turning 73 this year were subject to the requirement last year at age 72, while people turning 72 this year got a reprieve until 2024. When it comes to timing your RMD, there's no right or wrong answer—unless you blow the deadline, that is. In that case, you're subject to penalties of up to 25% of the amount not taken on time. The amount you must withdraw is based on your age and your account balances at the end of the prior year, so waiting until the end of the year won't impact the number. (The amount is calculated across all of your qualifying retirement accounts. Financial firms usually calculate their clients' RMDs, but it's up to you to tally the total if you have accounts across multiple firms.) If you need your RMD to meet living expenses, a good approach is to automate withdrawals on a schedule. A regular, paycheck-like withdrawal helps both with budgeting and satisfying your RMD, says Chris Briscoe, director of financial planning at Girard Advisory Services in King of Prussia, Pa. About 40% of Fidelity's RMD-eligible customers choose to automate their withdrawals, according to Rita Assaf, vice president of retirement products. Fidelity defaults to withdrawing 10% of RMDs for federal taxes—customers can change that amount if they wish—and state taxes are withheld according to state-specific requirements, according to a spokesperson. If you don't have enough withheld from your withdrawals, you risk owing money at tax time. Those who don't need their RMD for living expenses often like to see how the market performs before taking their withdrawal. Waiting has paid off in 2023: Hanging onto your RMD has allowed that money to benefit from the stock market's strong gains in Novemberand so far this month. Last year was a different story, as stocks and bonds both tanked. People who don't need their RMD can donate it to charity through a qualifying charitable distribution (QCD). In this approach, account holders never touch their withdrawal—it goes directly from their brokerage firm to a qualifying nonprofit. This process typically involves a check going via mail, so it's important to act soon if you'd like to pursue it for this year, Assaf says. Unlike regular RMDs, withdrawals donated through a QCD do not count toward your taxable income for the year. This can be particularly beneficial for those whose RMDs would otherwise bump them into a higher income-tax bracket or a higher income tier for Medicare premiums. Briscoe says he's noticed an uptick in clients interested in QCDs this year. Despite his best efforts to nudge them into action, some clients always go down to the wire with their RMD. His advice: "Just get it over with." Write to Elizabeth O'Brien at elizabeth.obrien@barrons.com This Barron's article was legally licensed by AdvisorStream. Copyright 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and member of FINRA and SIPC. Osaic Wealth, Inc. is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc.
November 29, 2023
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November 16, 2023
Make a holiday budget, well before the holidays. Make a list of all of your essential holiday-related expenses. But be as specific as you can, since extra expenses like stamps for your holiday cards or extra rolls of wrapping paper can tack on a significant layer of cost that goes well beyond gifts and travel. Decide how much money you can afford to spend in total, and then divvy it up by item, recipient, etc. Most importantly, stick to the plan as the season progresses. It's easy to be swept up in holiday cheer or caught off guard with last-minute purchases. Setting a budget in advance will help you figure out how much money you can devote to each category of expenses, including gifts, food, entertaining and other holiday cheer. Be careful of spending on your credit cards. Credit cards can be a useful tool to cover some of your holiday spending. That said, it's important not to get so carried away that you overuse or even max out your available credit. Before sitting down to map out your holiday spending, make a list of how much debt you're already carrying on your credit cards. Also, be aware of how that debt reflects your total debt-to-credit ratio, which most lenders prefer to see at or below 30 percent. Set a hard limit on the amount of credit you'll use throughout the season and be firm about not spending more than you can realistically pay back. Save now—spend later. Socking away small, affordable amounts is a great way to build a lifelong savings habit. It can also take the edge off when it comes to the holiday season. Find a way to easily set aside a few dollars from each paycheck, whether it's monthly, semi-monthly or weekly, and make sure that cash goes directly into a separate savings account. If you save $5 per day, that's $35 per week or $1,820 over the course of a year, which you can use to fully fund your holiday spending, pay down debt or prepare for retirement. Once you get used to saving $35 each week, try upping that to $40 and then $50. You'll create a manageable savings strategy that will help you develop true financial stability. Get crafty when you can. Nothing says “I love you” quite like a homemade gift. Plus, it ensures the recipient will become the proud owner of a one-of-a-kind item or get to enjoy a tasty treat. If you're not especially crafty but lack the funds to buy something for everyone on your list, consider creating your own “gift cards.” For example, you could pledge to lend your time and energy to help a relative or friend clean their home or volunteer to babysit for friends with children who could use a night out. The spirit of giving shows someone you care about them, and some gifts—whether you spend money, make something from scratch or donate your time—are priceless. Make your travel plans as early as possible. If you're one of the more than 115 million Americans who travel during the holidays, you probably already know firsthand that booking flights, renting a car and paying for gas or other travel expenses can add up quickly. Airlines, train stations, hotels and others in the travel industry tend to charge higher rates around the holidays, and those prices only rise as year-end approaches. Although it's hard to not be sucked into the spending cycle of the holidays, a bit of forethought and budgeting will go a long way toward getting you through the end of the year with your finances intact. Source: https://www.equifax.com/personal/education/personal-finance/articles/-/learn/prepare-your-finances-for-holidays/?emlid=703965&Et_rid=81930103 Important Information from FINRA to consider before transferring your account. Trading instructions sent via email may not be honored. Please contact my office at 631-331-6599 or Securities America, Inc. at 800‐747‐6111 for all buy/sell orders. Please be advised that communications regarding trades in your account are for informational purposes only. You should continue to rely on confirmations and statements received from the custodian(s) of your assets. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors , Inc. Securities offered through Securities America, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Heritage Harbor Financial Associates and Securities America are separate entities.Your cooperation is appreciated.​

Breakin’…The Movie & The Yield Curve. (As In, The Yield Curve Is Breakin’ Out)

Some of us remember a time BEFORE breakdancing;

let me tell you, those were dark days. Then,

everything changed! We were introduced to moves

like “The Windmill” and “The Freeze” and dancers

like Crazy Legs and Mr. Wiggles (what awesome

names!). Some of us became so enthralled with

breakdancing, or breakin’, we soon found ourselves

spinning on our heads on a cardboard box and

breakin’ became such a cultural phenomena, that

Hollywood made not one, but two movies about it

(aptly titled Breakin’ and Breakin’ 2.)........


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TO BETTER TIMES

With the presidential election behind us, the focus has shifted back to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on economic growth. The Federal Reserve remains extremely supportive from a monetary policy perspective, and we expect additional fiscal support from Washington, D.C. in the coming months. We continue to monitor the runoff elections in Georgia as an outcome of a divided government is likely priced into markets, and any deviation from that may result in near-term volatility. Overall, the barometer tilts positive, in-line with our modest overweight to risk across portfolios.....

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